Mencari Kebenaran . . .: DI MANA LAGI AKAN TERJADI MEGA

God Almighty says in the Holy Quran: Corruption has appeared throughout the land and sea by [reason of] what the hands of people have earned so He may let them taste part of (the consequence of) what they have done that perhaps they will return (to righteousness). (Firman Allah Taala: Telah timbul berbagai kerosakan dan bala bencana di darat dan di laut dengan sebab apa yang telah dilakukan oleh tangan manusia; (timbulnya yang demikian) kerana Allah hendak merasakan mereka sebahagian dari balasan perbuatan-perbuatan buruk yang mereka telah lakukan, supaya mereka kembali (insaf dan bertaubat). (Quran 30:41)

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Artikel berikut ditulis pada 9 Mac 2012 sebagai ulang tahun gempa bumi tsunami 2011-raksasa di Jepun, dan sebulan sebelum gempa bumi Indonesia. Tetapi soalan ia menimbulkan masih relevan, memandangkan kekerapan gempa bumi di seluruh DUNIA sejak kebelakangan ini, selaku 2 terkini yang sangat kuat dan gempa bumi berbahaya di Teluk California hari ini. (two very strong and dangerous earthquakes in the Gulf of California today). Malah, artikel yang disenaraikan sekurang-kurangnya 6 tempat di seluruh DUNIA yang mempunyai bakat untuk menjadi geologi untuk menjadi Jepun yang akan datang. Dan kita diingatkan bahawa mega-tsunami seterusnya mungkin lebih teruk lagi . . .

Photos: Jika Adakah Mega-Tsunami Hit Seterusnya? (Quake Ulangtahun Jepun)

Oleh Richard A. Lovett, National Geographic News, 9 Mac 2012.

Selepas Tsunami Jepun

Tahun yang lalu Ahad ini, magnitud 9 gempa bumi earthquake - dan memecah rekod, sehingga tsunami 10-tingkat up to ten-story-tall -tinggi ia melahirkan - membunuh kira-kira 20,000 orang di Kisenuma (gambar di bawah hari selepas tsunami tsunami) dan bandar-bandar lain di Jepun Japan.

Japan tsunami picture: aftermath in March 2011

Photograph from European Pressphoto Agency

Ia adalah salah satu untuk buku-buku sejarah, pasti, tetapi itu tidak bermakna ia tidak boleh berlaku di tempat lain. Malah, pakar-pakar berkata, sekurang-kurangnya enam tempat di seluruh dunia (yang disenaraikan di bawah) punya bakat untuk menjadi geologi untuk menjadi Jepun yang akan datang.

Apatah lagi, tapak mega tsunami seterusnya mungkin ia lebih teruk.

Selepas semua, kira-kira 90 peratus dengan 200,000 orang yang hidup dalam laluan tsunami di Jepun mendapati keselamatan semasa selang yang singkat di antara gempa bumi itu dan gelombang - 1 kadar kelangsungan hidup Oregon State University bahaya-jangkauan pakar Patrick Corcoran menyifatkan sejarah gempa bumi Jepun persediaan.

(See more Japan earthquake and tsunami pictures and news.)
(Lihat lebih banyak gempa bumi Jepun dan gambar tsunami dan berita.)

Barat laut Amerika Utara

Photograph by Phil Schermeister, National Geographic.

Apabila ia datang kepada tsunami, sesar Amerika Utara yang paling mengancam adalah zon Cascadia subduction, yang terbentang luar pesisir dari California Utara ke Kanada dan termasuk Siku Negeri Devil Oregon Park (gambar atas). Satu zon subduction di mana satu plat tektonik menyelam di bawah lain.

Setiap beberapa ratus tahun, ahli geologi percaya, kesilapan ini melepaskan gempa bumi gergasi, setanding dengan, atau lebih besar daripada yang melanda Jepun pada 11 Mac, 2011.

Megaquake yang paling terkini di kawasan tersebut adalah dalam 1700, mengikut analisis gelang pokok-pokok pertumbuhan yang dibunuh oleh gempa bumi.

Ia adalah cukup besar untuk menghantar tsunami ke Jepun dan menghasilkan legenda Amerika asli hari lautan meningkat dan melemparkan kanu ke pokok, USGS ahli geologi Brian Atwater melaporkan beberapa tahun yang lalu, apabila para saintis mula-mula bangun untuk subduction ancaman zon.

Malangnya, pantai penduduk Amerika Syarikat tidak mungkin bertindak balas dan seperti orang Jepun lakukan, Oregon State Corcoran berkata. "Jepun adalah budaya peka menyedari gempa bumi dan tsunami. Kami tidak."

Berapa ramai orang yang berada dalam zon bahaya ini sukar untuk menganggarkan. Corcoran meletakkan angka itu pada kira-kira 100,000 ribu. Tetapi beberapa bandar-bandar pantai, beliau berkata, boleh melihat populasi mereka membengkak dengan faktor 10 pada hujung minggu puncak pelancong.

"Ia adalah kerusi muzik," katanya. "Apabila berlaku gempa bumi, sesiapa yang akan menjadi akan berada di sana."

(Read "Japan's Nuclear Refugees" in National Geographic magazine.)
(Baca "Pelarian Nuklear Jepun" dalam majalah National Geographic.)

Timur Mediterranean

Photograph by Scott S. Warren, National Geographic.

Sekurang-kurangnya dikaji dan kurangnya zon subduction difahami di dunia adalah arka Hellenic, sebuah parit yang berlari melalui timur Mediterranean selatan Greece dan Turki, kata jurutera sivil Costas Synolakis University of Southern California (USC) dan Hellenic Pusat Penyelidikan Marin .

Beberapa bahaya kawasan itu, yang termasuk Lemesos, Cyprus (gambar atas), diketahui. Dalam 2,000 tahun yang lalu, Mediterranean timur telah menghasilkan 2 gempa bumi gergasi - pada AD 365 dan 1303 - dengan magnitud dianggarkan telah melebihi 8.5 dan "dengan tsunami untuk memadankan," kata Synolakis.

Tsunami awal musnah purba Alexandria, Mesir, tambah Emile Okal, geophysicist yang di Northwestern University. Yang menimbulkan persoalan serius mengenai ancaman tsunami kepada moden Mesir, katanya.

Rata-rata, Synolakis USC ditambah, Mediterranean nampaknya telah dilihat kira-kira satu atau dua tsunami setiap abad dan sangat terdedah kepada yang seterusnya.

"Pendedahan besar. Mediterranean yang didiami di sepanjang pantainya, dengan berjuta-juta pelancong pada musim panas," katanya. Tambahan pula, "kesedaran kepalang, dan tidak ada pusat amaran tsunami."

(Also see "One Year After Fukushima, Japan Faces Shortages of Energy, Trust.")
(Juga lihat "Satu Tahun Selepas Fukushima, Jepun Faces Kekurangan Tenaga, Amanah.")

Peru

Photograph by Abraham Nowitz, National Geographic.

Luar pesisir dari Peru merupakan satu lagi zon subduction, juga mempunyai sejarah gempa bumi besar.

Sebagai contoh, sejak "penaklukan Sepanyol pada tahun 1543, Lima [gambar atas] telah memusnahkan 3 kali oleh gempa bumi yang besar dengan tsunami," Okal Northwestern berkata. "Berapakah besar, kita tidak pasti, tetapi cukup untuk menghancurkan bandar kerana ia dibina (pada masa itu).

"Sekarang pembinaan akan menjadi sedikit lebih baik, tetapi penduduk telah meningkat, jadi saya akan meletakkan Lima sebagai sebuah bandar raya amat berisiko daripada gempa bumi besar dan tsunami tempatan."

(Japan Tsunami: 20 Unforgettable Pictures.)

(Tsunami Jepun: 20 Gambar yang tidak dapat dilupakan)

Caribbean

Photograph by David Doubilet, National Geographic.

Di beberapa kawasan termasuk Caribbean (gambar di atas: Cay St John Waterlemon) - tsunami boleh dicetuskan oleh gempa bumi yang lebih kecil, terutamanya jika mereka mencetuskan tanah runtuh di bawah air.

Geophysicist Matthew Hornbach telah mendapati bahawa walaupun 2010 magnitud 7.0 gempa bumi di Haiti adalah cukup besar untuk menghasilkan 10 kaki (3 meter) gelombang.

Dicapai melalui e-mel, Hornbach, Texas Southern Methodist University, pada masa ini di atas kapal off Montserrat, menggerudi ke dalam "runtuh rusuk" gunung berapi purba untuk menentukan risiko tsunami keseluruhan di rantau ini.

Walaupun dia tidak lagi bebas untuk membincangkan penemuan terbaru beliau, Hornbach menulis bahawa, apabila ia datang kepada tsunami, "Caribbean merupakan tempat penting yang sering diabaikan, dan saya akan mengatakan bahawa beberapa gelombang ini boleh menjadi besar-besaran."

Okal barat laut bersetuju, menunjuk khusus untuk Kepulauan Virgin Amerika Syarikat, yang mempunyai magnitud 7.5 gempa bumi dan tsunami bersekutu baru-baru ini sebagai tahun 1867.

Risiko besar di sana, katanya, adalah untuk kapal persiaran, di mana l5 atau 6 boleh berada di pelabuhan pada sekali, masing-masing dengan beberapa ribu penumpang dan anak kapal.

Pelayaran-kapten kapal telah berkata mereka boleh menjadi pelabuhan dalam tempoh 5 minit gempa bumi, Okal berkata, tetapi dia tidak percaya. "Anda akan mempunyai kesesakan lalu lintas yang cuba untuk menggerakkan perkara-perkara ini sangat besar," katanya.

Dan, beliau menambah, "Jika anda mendapatkan kapal anda dalam masa 5 minit, anda akan meninggalkan orang-orang di persisiran pantai akan dihanyutkan oleh ombak.

"Ia satu perangkap tsunami," katanya, mencatatkan bahawa bencana yang tidak akan memerlukan gempa bumi magnitud 9. "A 7 yang tinggi akan melakukannya."

(Japan Tsunami Pictures: Nuclear Reactor and Cities Burn.) (Gambar Tsunami Jepun: Reaktor Nuklear dan Bandar Terkemuka hangus)

Turki

Tsunami gallery picture: Istanbul, Turkey

Photograph by Richard Nowitz, National Geographic.

Kesilapan yang paling berbahaya bagi Turki (gambar di atas: Istanbul) Kerosakan Utara Anatolia. Sejak 1939 ia telah pecah, remeh, bermula di hujung timur.

Gempa bumi yang terhasil telah tidak tetap dijarakkan dalam masa dan magnitud tetapi setiap satu langkah barat sebelumnya, berkata Okal.

Gempa Turki utama yang paling terkini adalah pada tahun 1999, magnitud 7.4 di Izmit, yang meninggalkan 17.000 mati. Ia juga menghasilkan tsunami kecil di Laut Marmara, di antara Laut Hitam dan Aegean.

Bahawa tsunami tidak adalah punca utama kemusnahan. Tetapi segmen sesar seterusnya nampaknya selaras untuk pecah terletak di bawah Laut Marmara, berkata Okal. Jika berdetap seksyen itu, ia mungkin untuk menghasilkan tsunami yang lebih besar, "betul-betul di hadapan Istanbul."

Bukan sahaja tidak bahawa bandar mempunyai berjuta-juta orang, tetapi ia tidak berkesan menguatkuasakan standard bangunan, katanya.

Walaupun Laut Marmara gempa bumi tidak mungkin menjadi lebih kuat daripada 7.5 magnitud, beliau berkata, gempa bumi dan tsunami akan menjadi bencana kemanusiaan. "Kita boleh bertaruh mengenai perkara ini."

(Tsunami Pictures: Epic Waves, Earthquake Shock Japan.) (Gambar Tsunami: Gelombang Epic, Kejutan Gempa Bumi Jepun.)

Indonesia

Photograph by Thomas Cockrem, Alamy.

Indonesia telah menyaksikan lebih daripada bahagian gempa bumi gergasi, termasuk gempa bumi Lautan Hindi Disember 2004 - tsunami yang mengorbankan lebih daripada 200,000 diikuti bulan kemudian oleh gempa bumi magnitud 8.7 pada segmen bersebelahan garis kerosakan yang sama, yang dikenali sebagai subduction Sunda zon.

Tetapi bukan semua garis kerosakan itu mengeluarkan ketegangan pada tahun 2004 dan 2005. Satu segmen, bersama-sama tengah-tengah pulau Sumatera masih mungkin membawa tekanan yang terkumpul sejak gempa bumi besar terakhir, pada tahun 1833, berkata Okal.

Segmen tertekan terletak di luar bandar yang padat dengan penduduk Padang, yang beberapa kali lebih besar daripada Banda Aceh, bandar Indonesia terbesar yang dilanda tsunami 2004.

"Terdapat tempat-tempat di mana kita tahu daripada sejarah gempa bumi yang sangat besar, yang lebih atau kurang matang untuk (lain)," kata Okal. "Saya akan meletakkan Padang (itu) tempat yang buruk."

(Video: Tsunamis 101.)

[Sumber: National Geographic News. Top image]

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WHERE WILL NEXT MEGA - TSUNAMI HIT?

The following article was written on 9 March 2012 as an anniversary of the 2011 mammoth earthquake-tsunami in Japan, and a month before yesterday’s Indonesian earthquake. But the question it raises is still relevant, given the frequency of earthquakes around the globe in recent times, the latest being two very strong and dangerous earthquakes in the Gulf of California today. In fact, the article listed at least six places worldwide that have the geologic makings to become the next Japan. And we should be forewarned that the next mega-tsunami may be even worse . . .

Photos: Where Will Next Mega-Tsunami Hit? (Japan Quake Anniversary)
By Richard A. Lovett, National Geographic News, 9 March 2012.

Japan Tsunami Aftermath

A year ago this Sunday, a magnitude 9 earthquake - and the record-breaking, up to ten-story-tall tsunami it spawned - killed some 20,000 people in Kisenuma (pictured below the day after the tsunami) and other cities in Japan.

Photograph from European Pressphoto Agency

It was one for the history books, for sure, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen elsewhere. In fact, experts say at least six places worldwide [listed below] have the geologic makings to become the next Japan.

What's more, the next mega-tsunami site may have it even worse.

After all, some 90 percent of the 200,000 people who lived in the path of the Japanese tsunami found safety during the short interval between the earthquake and the wave - a survival rate Oregon State University hazards-outreach specialist Patrick Corcoran attributes to Japan's history of earthquake preparedness.

(See more Japan earthquake and tsunami pictures and news.)

Northwestern North America

Photograph by Phil Schermeister, National Geographic.

When it comes to tsunamis, North America's most threatening fault is the Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches offshore from Northern California to Canada and includes Oregon's Devil's Elbow State Park (pictured above). A subduction zone is where one tectonic plate is diving under another.

Every few hundred years, geologists believe, this fault unleashes a giant earthquake, comparable to, or larger than, the one that devastated Japan on March 11, 2011.

The most recent megaquake in the area was in 1700, according to analysis of growth rings in trees killed by the temblor.

It was big enough to send a tsunami all the way to Japan and produce Native American legends of the day the ocean rose up and threw canoes into trees, USGS geologist Brian Atwater reported a few years ago, when scientists were first waking up to the subduction zone's threat.

Unfortunately, U.S. coastal residents aren't likely to react as well as the Japanese did, Oregon State's Corcoran said. "The Japanese are culturally attuned to be aware of earthquakes and tsunamis. We are not."

How many people are in this danger zone is difficult to estimate. Corcoran put the figure at roughly a hundred thousand. But some coastal towns, he noted, can see their populations swell by a factor of ten during peak tourist weekends.

"It's musical chairs," he said. "When the earthquake happens, whoever is going to be there is going to be there."

(Read "Japan's Nuclear Refugees" in National Geographic magazine.)

Eastern Mediterranean

Photograph by Scott S. Warren, National Geographic.

The least studied and least understood subduction zone in the world is the Hellenic arc, a trench running through the eastern Mediterranean south of Greece and Turkey, said civil engineer Costas Synolakis of the University of Southern California (USC) and the Hellenic Center for Marine Research.

Some the hazards of the area, which includes Lemesos, Cyprus (pictured above), are known. In the past 2,000 years, the eastern Mediterranean has produced two giant earthquakes - in A.D. 365 and 1303 - with magnitudes estimated to have exceeded 8.5 and "with tsunamis to match," Synolakis said.

The earlier tsunami devastated ancient Alexandria, Egypt, added Emile Okal, a geophysicist at Northwestern University. That raises serious questions about the tsunami threat to modern Egypt, he said.

On average, USC's Synolakis added, the Mediterranean appears to have seen about one or two tsunamis per century - and is very vulnerable to the next one.

"The exposure is huge. The Mediterranean is heavily populated along its shores, with millions of tourists in the summer," he said. Furthermore, "the awareness is abysmal, and there is no tsunami warning centre."

(Also see "One Year After Fukushima, Japan Faces Shortages of Energy, Trust.")

Peru

Photograph by Abraham Nowitz, National Geographic.

Offshore from Peru is another subduction zone, also with a history of big earthquakes.

For example, since "the Spanish conquest in 1543, Lima [pictured above] has been destroyed three times by a major earthquake with tsunamis," Northwestern's Okal said. "How large, we are not sure, but enough to completely wreck the city as it was built [at the time].

"Now construction would be a bit better, but the population has increased, so I would put Lima as a city very much at risk from a major earthquake and local tsunamis."

(Japan Tsunami: 20 Unforgettable Pictures.)

Caribbean

Photograph by David Doubilet, National Geographic.

In some regions - including the Caribbean (pictured above: St. John's Waterlemon Cay) - tsunamis can be triggered by smaller earthquakes, especially if they set off underwater landslides.

Geophysicist Matthew Hornbach has discovered that even the 2010 magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Haiti was large enough to produce a ten-foot (three-meter) wave.

Reached via email, Hornbach, of Texas's Southern Methodist University, is currently on a ship off Montserrat, drilling into ancient volcanic "flank collapses" to determine the region's overall tsunami risk.

While he's not yet at liberty to discuss his latest findings, Hornbach wrote that, when it comes to tsunamis, "the Caribbean is an important place that is often overlooked, and I will say that some of these waves can be massive."

Northwestern's Okal agrees, pointing specifically to the U.S. Virgin Islands, which had a magnitude 7.5 earthquake and associated tsunami as recently as 1867.

The big risk there, he said, is to cruise ships, of which five or six can be in port at once, each with several thousand passengers and crew.

Cruise-ship captains have said they could be out of port within five minutes of an earthquake, Okal said, but he doesn't believe it. "You're going to have a traffic jam trying to move these enormous things," he said.

And, he added, "If you do get your ship out in five minutes, you're going to leave people on the shoreline to be washed away by the waves.

"It's a tsunami trap," he said, noting that a disaster wouldn't require a magnitude 9 earthquake. "A high 7 would do it."

(Japan Tsunami Pictures: Nuclear Reactor and Cities Burn.)

Turkey

Photograph by Richard Nowitz, National Geographic.

The most dangerous fault for Turkey (pictured above: Istanbul) is the North Anatolian Fault. Since 1939 it's been rupturing, piecemeal, starting at the eastern end.

The resulting earthquakes have been irregularly spaced in time and magnitude but each has been one step west of its predecessor, Okal said.

The most recent major Turkish quake was in 1999, a magnitude 7.4 in Izmit, which left 17,000 dead. It also produced a small tsunami in the Sea of Marmara, between the Black Sea and the Aegean.

That tsunami wasn't a major source of destruction. But the next fault segment apparently in line for a rupture lies directly beneath the Sea of Marmara, Okal said. If that section snaps, it's likely to produce a more substantial tsunami, "right in front of Istanbul."

Not only does that city have millions of people, but it doesn't effectively enforce building standards, he added.

Even though a Sea of Marmara earthquake wouldn't likely to be much stronger than magnitude 7.5, he said, the quake and its tsunami would be a humanitarian disaster. "We can bet on this."

(Tsunami Pictures: Epic Waves, Earthquake Shock Japan.)

Indonesia

Photograph by Thomas Cockrem, Alamy.

Indonesia has seen more than its share of giant earthquakes, including the Indian Ocean quake of December 2004 - whose tsunami killed more than 200,000 - followed months later by a magnitude 8.7 temblor on an adjacent segment of the same fault line, known as the Sunda subduction zone.

But not all of that fault line released its tension in 2004 and 2005. One segment, along the middle of the island of Sumatra may still be carrying stresses accumulated since its last major earthquake, in 1833, Okal said.

The stressed segment lies off the densely populated city of Padang, which is several times larger than Banda Aceh, the largest Indonesian city hit by the 2004 tsunami.

"There are places where we know of very large historical earthquakes, which are more or less ripe for [another]," Okal said. "I would put Padang as [such] a bad place."

(Video: Tsunamis 101.)

[Source: National Geographic News. Edited. Top image added.]

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